Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States initiates or becomes directly involved in an international armed conflict with another state by November 30, 2026. An international armed conflict occurs when one or more States have recourse to armed force against another State, regardless of the reasons or the intensity of this confrontation, and no formal declaration of war or recognition of the situation is required. This includes direct military engagement such as sustained air strikes, naval combat, or ground operations against a foreign military or state-controlled forces. Isolated incidents, covert operations, or military aid to third parties do not constitute a war. The market resolves NO if no such conflict occurs by the deadline.

Background

Starting in late January 2026, the United States increased its military presence across the Middle East in response to rising tensions with Iran, with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group deployed to the region on January 26, 2026, accompanied by additional air, naval, and missile defense forces. A crisis in the Taiwan Strait and Russia-NATO clashes are given an even chance of occurring in 2026 and are rated as high impact due to their potential to draw the United States into a direct military conflict with China or Russia. 2025 saw a continued resurgence in interstate conflicts, and nine capital cities were targeted in air strikes by state actors, including Tehran, Iran and Tel Aviv, Israel.

Considerations

The definition of "war" in this market uses the international law standard of armed conflict rather than requiring a formal declaration of war, which is increasingly rare in modern conflicts. International armed conflict is based on objective and factual criteria and does not rely on the formal declaration of war, with existence depending on what actually happens on the ground. This means sustained military operations meeting the threshold of armed conflict would resolve the market YES, even without formal war declarations.

This description was generated by AI.