Sam's calibration
Grade: C-, Score: -8.1
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Sam bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
- Will Manifold Markets try to stop users from making extra accounts to shuffle money around by June 2022?YESṀ10
- Will Manifold Market questions be significantly less meta by April 2022?YESṀ1
- Will this question set the record for the largest ever total $$$ pool on Manifold Markets on or before March 15?YESṀ1
30%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will this question set the record for the largest ever total $$$ pool on Manifold Markets on or before March 15?YESṀ50
- If we monetize by selling Mantic Dollars for real money, will it work well enough that we keep it for at least a couple months?YESṀ1
- Will the US Men's soccer team qualify for the 2022 World Cup?YESṀ1