resolved Jan 1

26

Will there be more than one fatal shark attack in the United States in 2022?

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question will resolve positively if two or more people are killed by shark attack on the shores (or aquariums) of the United States in 2022. More info /resolution data here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_shark_attacks_in_the_United_States#2020s Close date updated to 2022-04-15 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Martin Randall	Ṁ112
2	wasabipesto	Ṁ30
3	Amnonian	Ṁ25
4	Angola Maldives	Ṁ16
5	Gabrielle	Ṁ14

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Martin Randallpredicted NO at 25% https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/25/shark-encounters-long-island-new-york More non fatal encounters.

Martin Randallpredicted NO at 40% So far so good...

Sambought Ṁ1 of NOYes, when I made this question eons ago, I was looking for early predictions. Does anyone have a good justification for keeping the question open all year? I think we can change it. If we did, we could track sentiment as more data comes in, but in this case the data is minimal - either one person gets attacked and the probability increases, or no one does and it slowly decreases. I only know the basics of predictions markets but it's my impression that the utility of it is to track sentiment across time. Metaculus rewards early predictors. MM doesn't quite have this function.

Angola Maldivesbought Ṁ20 of NO@Andrew Hartman: Market setters can set trading to end before the market is evaluated, to prevent people buying into the market once its outcome becomes obvious. In this case we're being asked to lock in our predictions early.

Andrew Hartmanbought Ṁ20 of NOI'm curious why this ends in March, when most of the sharks attacks in the year would happen over the summer.

Sambought Ṁ1 of YESUnfortunately there was a fatal shark attack in Australia this week. Doesn't count towards this question's total but first blood has been drawn.

Sam Casavantbought Ṁ15 of NOBy my count, this criteria was met 5 times since 2000, which puts it a little under 25%. You might get a better estimate by factoring in number of beach-goers and relative shark and fish populations, but I don't need to worry about that at this price.

Garrett Baker sold Ṁ6 YES from 4% to 3%

Michael Wheatley filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ1,985 YES at 4% (cancelled)

Michael Wheatley bought Ṁ397 NO from 5% to 2%

Michael Wheatley created limit order for Ṁ397 YES at 2% (cancelled)

GPT-PBot created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 88% (cancelled)

Martin Randall bought Ṁ100 NO from 9% to 5%

Martin Randall bought Ṁ100 NO from 16% to 9%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 87% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 92% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 91% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 94% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 98% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 93% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 90% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ13 NO at 85% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 88% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ13 NO at 80% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ43 NO at 75% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ86 NO at 67% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ85 NO at 57% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ60 NO at 47% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 85% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 91% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 98% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 92% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 94% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 93% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 90% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 88% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 87% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 80% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ13 NO at 75% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ25 NO at 67% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ33 NO at 57% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ12 NO at 47% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ12 NO at 37% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ8 NO at 32% (cancelled)

Amnonian sold Ṁ16 NO from 15% to 16%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 98% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

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