resolved Jan 1
Will there be more than one fatal shark attack in the United States in 2022?
This question will resolve positively if two or more people are killed by shark attack on the shores (or aquariums) of the United States in 2022. More info /resolution data here: Close date updated to 2022-04-15 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallpredicted NO at 40% So far so good...
sam avatar
Sambought Ṁ1 of NOYes, when I made this question eons ago, I was looking for early predictions. Does anyone have a good justification for keeping the question open all year? I think we can change it. If we did, we could track sentiment as more data comes in, but in this case the data is minimal - either one person gets attacked and the probability increases, or no one does and it slowly decreases. I only know the basics of predictions markets but it's my impression that the utility of it is to track sentiment across time. Metaculus rewards early predictors. MM doesn't quite have this function.
AngolaMaldives avatar
Angola Maldivesbought Ṁ20 of NO@Andrew Hartman: Market setters can set trading to end before the market is evaluated, to prevent people buying into the market once its outcome becomes obvious. In this case we're being asked to lock in our predictions early.
AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartmanbought Ṁ20 of NOI'm curious why this ends in March, when most of the sharks attacks in the year would happen over the summer.
sam avatar
Sambought Ṁ1 of YESUnfortunately there was a fatal shark attack in Australia this week. Doesn't count towards this question's total but first blood has been drawn.
SamCasavant avatar
Sam Casavantbought Ṁ15 of NOBy my count, this criteria was met 5 times since 2000, which puts it a little under 25%. You might get a better estimate by factoring in number of beach-goers and relative shark and fish populations, but I don't need to worry about that at this price.