Will there be more than one fatal shark attack in the United States in 2022?
26
63
Ṁ143
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
This question will resolve positively if two or more people are killed by shark attack on the shores (or aquariums) of the United States in 2022. More info /resolution data here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_shark_attacks_in_the_United_States#2020s Close date updated to 2022-04-15 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ112
2Ṁ30
3Ṁ25
4Ṁ16
5Ṁ14
7 Comments
12 Holders
224 Trades
Sort by:
predicted NO
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/25/shark-encounters-long-island-new-york More non fatal encounters.
predicted NO
So far so good...
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Yes, when I made this question eons ago, I was looking for early predictions. Does anyone have a good justification for keeping the question open all year? I think we can change it. If we did, we could track sentiment as more data comes in, but in this case the data is minimal - either one person gets attacked and the probability increases, or no one does and it slowly decreases. I only know the basics of predictions markets but it's my impression that the utility of it is to track sentiment across time. Metaculus rewards early predictors. MM doesn't quite have this function.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
@Andrew Hartman: Market setters can set trading to end before the market is evaluated, to prevent people buying into the market once its outcome becomes obvious. In this case we're being asked to lock in our predictions early.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
I'm curious why this ends in March, when most of the sharks attacks in the year would happen over the summer.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Unfortunately there was a fatal shark attack in Australia this week. Doesn't count towards this question's total but first blood has been drawn.
bought Ṁ15 of NO
By my count, this criteria was met 5 times since 2000, which puts it a little under 25%. You might get a better estimate by factoring in number of beach-goers and relative shark and fish populations, but I don't need to worry about that at this price.

Related questions