Will Manifold Market questions be significantly less meta by April 2022?
25
99
Ṁ100
resolved Apr 4
Resolved
YES
Manifold Market is a prediction markets platform with great promise! Currently its user base is small and mostly comprised of people who work directly on it or who are interested in novel forms of prediction markets. MM's unique spin on prediction markets is that anyone can create and resolve their own questions, thereby fostering innovation, community and personalization in an otherwise relatively stale sector. Consequently, it's not surprising that many of MM's questions are inward-looking or involve game theory. So, when will MM questions evolve to be more outward-facing? This question will resolve YES if the questions on MM are significantly less meta by April 1, 2022. Resolution of this is subjective and from an outsider's perspective (I'm just a person who writes questions for fun.) Evaluation criteria is pretty simple: the vast majority of the most traded / highest volume questions don't mention MM, prediction markets or somehow involve a question inside a question. Feb 10, 6:42pm: Examples of meta questions include "Will the largest bet in this market be an even number?"; "If we monetize by selling Mantic Dollars for real money, will it work well enough that we keep it for at least a couple months?"; "Will Manifold Market questions be significantly less meta by April 2022?" Feb 11, 9:42am: I designed this question to be subjective, more of a 'vibe' than anything... Testing to see if people will accept subjective questions, especially from a non-famous person. I'll say that relatively speaking, I do believe that the current mix of MM questions are meta compared to other more established prediction markets like Metaculus or Kalshi. If two of the top traded questions currently fit the meta criteria, that's 20%, which is a lot of meta! When I scroll down the recent activity feed, I see a fair amount of meta too. If meta questions feel like only a small niche sub-category of the MM by April, this will resolve NO. I'm going to refrain from setting an actual percentage reduction and keep it 'vibe' based, but I hope I've explained my perspective, which should help with your predictions. Apr 4, 1:24pm: I decided to resolve this as YES. Although there are still certainly some meta questions, I'm seeing what feels like a lot less than before, and a lot more general content especially concerning Russia/Ukraine.
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bought Ṁ1 of NO
Apologies for setting the trading deadline so early! You'll just have to make a prediction and stick to it (gasp!)
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Everyone vote no because I'll make sure it stays meta ;-)
bought Ṁ1 of YES
FYI if this question resolved today, I think it'd be a NO.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Hi All - I appreciate the feedback! I designed this question to be subjective, more of a 'vibe' than anything... Testing to see if people will accept subjective questions, especially from a non-famous person. I'll say that relatively speaking, I do believe that the current mix of MM questions are meta compared to other more established prediction markets like Metaculus or Kalshi. If two of the top traded questions currently fit the meta criteria, that's 20%, which is a lot of meta! When I scroll down the recent activity feed, I see a fair amount of meta too. If meta questions feel like only a small niche sub-category of the MM by April, this will resolve NO. I'm going to refrain from setting an actual percentage reduction and keep it 'vibe' based, but I hope I've explained my perspective, which should help with your predictions. And yes, buckle up, Connor could crank out a ton of meta posts to sway the resolution of this question!
bought Ṁ200 of NO
By no definition of significant will this happen. For three reasons: 1. It's not very meta at the moment (even if you count this post). 2. There is a massive space of fun and interesting meta markets to play with 3. Now that I've made this bet I'll make way more meta posts and there's nothing you can do to stop me.
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Can we have a metric for significantly less? Maybe 50% less?
bought Ṁ1 of NO
It doesn't look like there are that many meta markets from your evaluation criteria, only 1 of the top ten most traded and 2 of the top ten in 24h volume

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