Will Manifold Market questions be significantly less meta by April 2022?
25
100Ṁ990
resolved Apr 4
Resolved
YES
Manifold Market is a prediction markets platform with great promise! Currently its user base is small and mostly comprised of people who work directly on it or who are interested in novel forms of prediction markets. MM's unique spin on prediction markets is that anyone can create and resolve their own questions, thereby fostering innovation, community and personalization in an otherwise relatively stale sector. Consequently, it's not surprising that many of MM's questions are inward-looking or involve game theory. So, when will MM questions evolve to be more outward-facing? This question will resolve YES if the questions on MM are significantly less meta by April 1, 2022. Resolution of this is subjective and from an outsider's perspective (I'm just a person who writes questions for fun.) Evaluation criteria is pretty simple: the vast majority of the most traded / highest volume questions don't mention MM, prediction markets or somehow involve a question inside a question. Feb 10, 6:42pm: Examples of meta questions include "Will the largest bet in this market be an even number?"; "If we monetize by selling Mantic Dollars for real money, will it work well enough that we keep it for at least a couple months?"; "Will Manifold Market questions be significantly less meta by April 2022?" Feb 11, 9:42am: I designed this question to be subjective, more of a 'vibe' than anything... Testing to see if people will accept subjective questions, especially from a non-famous person. I'll say that relatively speaking, I do believe that the current mix of MM questions are meta compared to other more established prediction markets like Metaculus or Kalshi. If two of the top traded questions currently fit the meta criteria, that's 20%, which is a lot of meta! When I scroll down the recent activity feed, I see a fair amount of meta too. If meta questions feel like only a small niche sub-category of the MM by April, this will resolve NO. I'm going to refrain from setting an actual percentage reduction and keep it 'vibe' based, but I hope I've explained my perspective, which should help with your predictions. Apr 4, 1:24pm: I decided to resolve this as YES. Although there are still certainly some meta questions, I'm seeing what feels like a lot less than before, and a lot more general content especially concerning Russia/Ukraine.
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