Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ41 | |
| 2 | Ṁ29 | |
| 3 | Ṁ4 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
In the 2010s, there were 10 total fatal attacks in the months September, October, November and December. Assuming that attacks are independent and taking a uniform prior over the hazard rate, I obtain a probability of 0.85% that there will be four or more fatal attacks the rest of this year.
The independence assumption is not quite right. Of 93 fatal attacks since 1990, 6 (6.5%) resulted in two fatalities. My model gives probabilities of 7.5% and 19.1% for 3 and 2 fatal attacks in the rest of this year, respectively. Taking the 6.5% number at face value, the probability that at least one of 3 fatal attacks will result in a double fatality is 18.3%. The probability that both of 2 fatal attacks will result in double fatalities is 12.6%.
Neglecting the possibility of a quadruple fatality, I arrive at a probability of 4.6% that there will be four or more fatalities in the rest of this year.