Will the main LK-99 market close between 30% and 40% on August 3rd?

Basic

Ṁ19k

resolved Aug 4

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves to YES if the market closes between 30% and 40%, inclusive of the lower bound but exlcusive of the higher bound (YES if 30<=x<40).

Closes August 3rd @ 11:59pm PST

The market:

https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

36% chance. Preprint here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 Companion paper here with description of synthesis: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 Update 2023-07-27: Pasting my comment on resultion criteria We’re clearly all here because a) it’s fun, and b) we’re interested in room temperature s…

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it’s getting close

It currently would cost M4000 to get the main market to 40%. If doing so paid off, then a M1000 NO bet placed here - bidding it merely down to 50% - at the current price would give M4900 profit.

The main market is super liquid so one would make almost all of one's 4000 mana back selling the YES.

M5000 risked for nearly M5000 profit. A doubling.

I'm not saying I'm gonna do it. I'm just sayin'.