Will it drop below 30% at any point in time from now on?
The specific market in question is "Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?" by Quantum Observer
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Resolves YES @jamesoofou
If it's not below 30% when you check it, zoom in on the chart at 11:20AM UTC Aug 3rd.
@NoamY My questions resolves to yes if the room-temperature superconductor market drops below 30%. So, it wouldn't count unless it drops below 30% and then resolves to NO.
@jamesoofou For what it's worth, previous markets here about "will there be a swing of greater than X% in any market" and similar have counted resolution as 100 or 0 for the purposes of calculating percentage swings.
I think it's very unlikely the market will resolve NO without trading below 30% first, but it seems more unexpected to exclude that case than to include it. Although this wasn't included in the original resolution criteria, I think market creators should feel free within reason to adjust criteria within the spirit of what they were going for (and as you are a new user here, you should be aware that this is tolerated, and even encouraged by many. It's very hard to write good resolution criteria, so some flexibility is needed).
@chrisjbillington That's interesting, thanks for your comment. But the intention behind this question is that it relates to the market itself, disconnected from whether the result actually replicates. It's about the market itself. I'll keep it like this unless there's a really compelling reason not to.