Will the LK-99 market be below 4% for the day?
19
433
4.8K
Jun 11
7%
Apr 21, 2024
11%
Apr 22, 2024
10%
Apr 23, 2024
10%
Apr 24, 2024
11%
Apr 25, 2024
15%
Apr 26, 2024
15%
Apr 27, 2024
15%
Apr 28, 2024
15%
Apr 29, 2024
23%
Apr 30, 2024

This market is a daily derivative market for the LK-99 market. It predicts whether the LK-99 market will stay at or below 4% for the day


Resolves Yes if there are over 20000Mana of 4% NO-limit-orders on the market that stayed up for over 6 hours in the day (ET time)
(this rule is to prevent sniping from easily manipulating market price)
To make it clear, as long as the 1%,2%,3%,4% no limit orders sum to over 20000 Mana, this market resolves Yes.

If you have evidence on the market's no limit order, please post it to the comment. If nothing was being posted to the comment before the day is over, I will use my judgement to resolve the market. No dispute on resolution after a market is resolved.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Apr 12, 2024

Nonetheless, seems like Apr 12 resolves YES.

Well that's unexpected. Who's betting yes there anyway lol

sold Ṁ250 Apr 12, 2024 NO

@JureSmolar

Who's betting yes there

I mean the superconductor market. The paper matches every superconductor swindle to date.

@JureSmolar I know. Maybe I'm getting old and people didn't watch the same cartoons as I did. Anyway the same person is betting YES on LK-99 as who always bets YES on LK-99.

@chrisjbillington Ahh that’s how you meant it. I’m a 2000 kid so I only vaguely remember that evil genius mouse dude 😅

Not sure if you intended for the market to close for betting btw, guessing that stayed from the march questions

Apr 11, 2024

The first 50k limit order from yesterday is still up. The sums are increasing. Resolves YES.

Actually didn't even notice it's still 5am there lol. Pardon for one more hour, though I doubt they'll be all filled any time today.

For proper resolution.

Apr 10, 2024

Surprisingly a lot of yes betting has happened since yesterday. Still healthily resolves YES today, even with just jason's limit order.

Apr 9, 2024

More than 20k of the same limit orders still up, many more have been added that are also over 6h now, so this will take a few days at least to get through unless some YES whale shows up.

Apr 8, 2024

Tthe same limit orders are still up.

Apr 7, 2024

Same limit orders as yesterday are still up, already 6 hours into the day.

Apr 6, 2024

Apr 6 already has 6 hours of surviving limit orders

Apr 5, 2024

Just a ping to check before resolving. I attached res criteria under the Apr 4 thread.

Apr 4, 2024
bought Ṁ30 Apr 4, 2024 YES

Apr 4 resolves YES. Your own holding exceeds 6 hours. Attached the ET timestamp for reference to my local time.

bought Ṁ150 Apr 4, 2024 NO

@JureSmolar oops... didnt read your comment before resolving Apr 4. I've asked for mod help in unresolving this

@AmmonLam I trust it will be resolved well. Attached is the status for today; Chris' orders have now stayed up for 6 hours, all falling within Apr 5 in ET, which should thus resolve YES.

bought Ṁ200 Apr 4, 2024 YES

@JureSmolar resolved Apr 4 back to yes

Just so I understand correctly, as long as e.g. Jason holds at least one of his 33,333 no bets this would resolve as yes at least until he sells? Or does the market also need to be 3% or less? The title uses strict inequality (will [...] be below?) while the description is ambiguous in the sense that "will stay at or below" can mean either: resolves yes if it's either, or that it disambiguates between the two, i.e. no if it stays at, yes if it goes below.

To make the example even more extreme, if I put in a no limit 20000M bet, and the market rose to, say, 6%, would this still resolve yes as long as I don't sell?

@JureSmolar
"Resolves Yes if there are over 20000Mana of 4% no limit orders on the market that stayed up for over 6 hours in the day (ET time)"

@AmmonLam ah, I was reading “no limit order” as non-limit order, but you mean a limit order of NO. All clear now.

@JureSmolar added hyphen and capitalized NO for clarity

bought Ṁ45 Apr 3, 2024 YES

@JureSmolar for example, Apr 3 resolves Yes since the 20000Mana of 4% NO-limit-orders stayed up for 6 hours already

@AmmonLam Clear now. Thank you.