Will GPT-5 have an estimated IQ higher than 101?
Plus
16
Ṁ4722025
79%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Maxim Lott's analysis, when Claude 3 was released, is the basis for this question. A similar analysis will likely be published when GPT-5 is released, and that will be the basis for resolving this prediction.
https://www.maximumtruth.org/p/ais-ranked-by-iq-ai-passes-100-iq
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@PhilosophyBear my question was based on this article from Maxim Lott (https://www.maximumtruth.org/p/ais-ranked-by-iq-ai-passes-100-iq)
If you have a measurement instrument in mind, please suggest -- otherwise, I would use a similar analysis to this once it is released (which will surely be done for GPT-5).
Related questions
Related questions
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
8% chance
Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?
50% chance
Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?
87% chance
What will be true about GPT-5?
Will GPT-5 have a rating of at least 2000 in chess?
55% chance
What will be true about GPT-5? (See description)
Will GPT-5 have more than 5 trillion parameters?
65% chance
Will GPT-5 have more than 10 trillion parameters?
31% chance
Will GPT-5 have Atari skills?
26% chance
Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?
44% chance