Will GPT-5 be capable of achieving superhuman performance in at least one exam that is typically taken by humans?

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Resolved to YES if there is at least one exam that humans typically take, where GPT-5 or an equivalent flagship model from OpenAI displays superhuman performance. The exact name 'GPT-5' is not necessary.

Edit: To be ‘superhuman’, a GPT-5 or equivalent model has to score higher than the best humans on the same task. If they tie, it only counts if both have a perfect score.

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What qualifies as superhuman? Depending on your threshold, GPT-4 may already exceed this https://openai.com/research/gpt-4

2 replies

Jacob Pfau

@PrestonJensen @3684 Standardized tests often report percentiles, so I'd suggest the bar be 'AI must score above the score associated with 99th percentile humans'.

Jacob Pfau

@JacobPfau (In the absence of more detailed available data). GPT-4 apparently scores near 99th on both GRE Verbal and USABO 2022. However, neither of those meet this bar--the GRE-V being too 'easy' since perfect score is still 99th.