Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

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Either section

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What if OpenAI changes its naming scheme and the next frontier LLM is not released as 'GPT-5'? How would this market resolve in that case?

uhhh the “either section” qualifier needs to be in the title

@Ophiuchus fixed

Does perfect mean getting 0 questions wrong, or getting a 1600?

@ShadowyZephyr I'm pretty confident the score is meant, not getting 0 questions wrong.

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Will GPT-5 exceed 70% on WebArena?

63% chance

Will anyone get a perfect score at BMT 2025?

70% chance

What will be true about GPT-5?

Will GPT-5 have Atari skills?

3% chance

Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

63% chance

Will I be impressed by GPT-5?

19% chance

Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

8% chance

Will GPT-5 be capable of achieving superhuman performance in at least one exam that is typically taken by humans?

91% chance

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

10% chance

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