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MANIFOLD
Trump AGI mention market
2
Ṁ200Ṁ142
Dec 31
61%
AGI
61%
Artificial General Intelligence
48%
Superintelligence
44%
Existential risk
34%
Singularity
24%
Automate/Automated R&D
17%
Loss of control
10%
x-risk

Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve to YES if Donald Trump publicly mentions the specific phrase or its designated variations between June 2, 2026, and December 31, 2026, and NO otherwise.

A "mention" is defined as Donald Trump explicitly speaking, writing, or publishing the term in:

  • Public speeches, press conferences, or interviews as transcribed in speaker-tagged databases such as Factbase or Senate Democrats' Newsroom Trump Transcripts.

  • Official social media accounts (Truth Social @realDonaldTrump or Twitter/X @realDonaldTrump).

  • Signed White House executive orders, official press releases, or policy declarations issued under his name.

Market context
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