At the start of each year, I will repeat the below poll:
This market stays open until more than 50% of poll respondents say "Yes" about the previous year (that there was AGI). We then resolve YES that year people first said "Yes" about, and all other years resolve NO.
Results that are botted, hacked or manipulated won't count (I'd openly consult with the mods).
What value does this add?
There have been many proposed criteria for "AGI". The problem is we don't know which one people will actually converge on, or how our understanding of "general" will change. The goal of this market is to show a descriptive angle (rather than prescriptive), and defers the definition to whatever future people think "AGI" means.
Please add years, they are not fixed; Manifold just charges on a per-bucket basis I guess.
1,000
3.00@singer The gaps are purely unintentional, and anyone can add those years. Unfortunately I didn't notice that Manifold charges an arm and a leg to add buckets. And when I go to the question creation screen, I don't currently see any option to do a continuous question. It's kind of a mess.
EDIT: I added a couple years, and added an edit in the body to clarify that it's not fixed, people can add them.