If the U.S. invades Iran by EOM, will Khamenei be dead by EOY?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ188resolved Feb 1
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Self-explanatory. CCR.
Update 2026-01-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve N/A if the U.S. does not invade Iran by the end of the month.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
13% chance
A U.S. ground invasion of Iran is expected before July 1st, 2026, along with the fall of the Iranian regime.
2% chance
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
15% chance
Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026?
17% chance
If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
7% chance
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
7% chance
1000 american troops inside Iran by EOY?
11% chance
US ground invasion of Iran before the end of 2026?
18% chance
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
21% chance
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
12% chance