Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there is an official determination by the U.S. government—specifically the Department of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security, or the Office of the Director of National Intelligence—that a fatal attack carried out on U.S. soil was planned, directed, or materially supported by the government of Iran or an Iranian state-backed entity. For the purposes of this market, "U.S. soil" is defined as the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. territories.

If no such official determination is made, or if an attack occurs but is attributed solely to independent actors without proof of Iranian state sponsorship as defined above, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

The question of Iranian involvement in attacks on U.S. soil involves complex assessments by the U.S. intelligence community regarding the distinction between Iranian-backed proxy groups and direct operations by state security apparatuses, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The U.S. government has historically documented efforts by Iran to target dissidents and officials within the United States, often utilizing criminal networks or third-party actors. These incidents are frequently tracked through official DOJ press releases, indictments, and statements from the Department of State or national security agencies. Traders should monitor official U.S. government communications and major reporting outlets for credible attributions of responsibility regarding any relevant security incidents.

This description was generated by AI. (and I, Baba Ghanoush, reviewed it)