Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026, there is credible, widespread reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times) confirming:
A formal U.S. military ground invasion of Iranian territory has commenced.
The current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has ceased to function or has been replaced as a direct result of this conflict.
If neither condition is met, or if there is no official confirmation of both a ground invasion and regime fall by the specified deadline, the market resolves to NO.
Background
As of April 2026, there is no official indication of an impending U.S. ground invasion of Iran. Tensions between the United States and Iran are a long-standing feature of geopolitical relations in the Middle East, characterized by diplomatic, economic, and proxy conflicts rather than direct, large-scale conventional warfare. A ground invasion and the collapse of the Iranian regime would constitute a major escalation and a fundamental shift in regional and global security policy.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
1,000