Will Anduril Industries acquire Radiant Nuclear before 2024?
24
112
410
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Anduril Industries, Inc. is an American defense company specializing in autonomous systems. It was founded in 2017 by Palmer Luckey. (https://www.anduril.com/)

Radiant Nuclear makes portable nuclear fission reactors. Their product Kaleidos will provide 1 megawatt (MW) of electricity, capable of powering 1,000 homes up to 5 years. Built to fit in a shipping container, Kaleidos includes the reactor, shielding, power conversion system, and cooling system. (https://www.radiantnuclear.com/)

Will Anduril acquire Radiant Nuclear?
This market resolves YES if an official announcement is made by Anduril Industries stating that they are acquiring Radiant Nuclear. A tweet by the company's or Palmer Luckey's Twitter account, a blog post on their website, or an official press release is sufficient to meet this condition. The acquisition does not need to close this year, only an announcement is necessary.
Alternately the market resolves NO if there is no such announcement by the end of the year.

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predicted NO

Why hasnt this resolved NO?

this isn’t totally germane but 1MW is more like 300-500 homes, at least in the US

I don't know much about this but at least the scales make some sense. The evaluation of anduril is 7B, radiantnuclear is currently at 128M.
Though, I'd worry that the US would block an attempt to monopolize the technology under one contractor, I'd be a bit surprised if they haven't already grabbed a lot of radiantnuclear's patents.

predicted YES

@makoyass seems unlikely given their customer is the us government
another probable outcome is that one of the other defense contractors gets them
anduril is tiny compared to raytheon, boeing, etc

@rayquaza What seems unlikely?

Yeah, I can see the applications to Anduril's stuff easily, are raytheon doing as much in the field using fully electric devices?

predicted YES

@makoyass
> What seems unlikely?
I'd worry that the US would block an attempt to monopolize the technology under one contractor, I'd be a bit surprised if they haven't already grabbed a lot of radiantnuclear's patents.
as there is a lot of competition in defense and an acq like this shouldn't raise eyebrows in the us gov unless the other co's lobby hard.

> are raytheon doing as much in the field using fully electric devices?
not that i know of but seems pretty likely

@rayquaza If there's a lot of competition in defense, that would suggest that antimonopoly action is probably already being undertaken :p in which case Anduril may have already been told if they're not going to be allowed to acquire.

I checked in on some of their existing investors, claude says that one of them, Decisive Point, is a venture capital firm focused on investing in early stage defense technology startups. So this firm could be considered a defense tech investor.

So those exist. Which is some indication that strong anticonsolidation might not be too much of a thing. Unsure.

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