This market resolves to YES if the poll titled

“Did the USA strike Venezuela in the first two weeks of December 2025?”

resolves to YES.

https://manifold.markets/pureprofit/did-the-usa-strike-venezuela-in-the

Market Description

Important:

The oracle is the poll result, not a direct determination of what “really” happened in the real world.

Traders should bet on how they expect Manifold poll voters to decide, based on their understanding of the news and evidence.

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Time window for a “strike”

For the purposes of this market and the oracle poll, a strike must occur between:

00:00 ET on 1 December 2025 and

23:59 ET on 14 December 2025

(i.e. the first two weeks of December 2025, inclusive, in Eastern Time).

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Definition of “strike”

A “strike” is defined as any explosive, bomb, missile, ballistic weapon, or similar munition launched by the USA that hits Venezuelan soil or Venezuela’s territorial waters within 20 miles of its coast during the time window above.

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Reasoning / purpose

The goal of this setup is to find a clear Manifold consensus in a situation where:

News may be messy, delayed, or contradictory.

Different sources may interpret events differently.

Instead of the market creator or a single news source deciding, the poll aggregates what Manifold users collectively believe happened, after they have had time to review the available information.

This market is therefore a meta-market: it resolves to YES if and only if the poll resolves YES.

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Resolution details

The poll closes on 15 December 2025 (ET).

This market will resolve 16 hours after the poll’s voting is finalized, using the poll’s final outcome exactly.