This poll will serve as the oracle for the Manifold market:
“USA strikes Venezuela in first 2 weeks of December 2025?” https://manifold.markets/pureprofit/usa-strikes-venezuela-in-first-2-we
Its purpose is to measure Manifold users’ consensus about the current events: what you believe actually happened.
Please avoid voting too early; wait until you feel reasonably informed.
You may trade in the corresponding market at any time while it is open.
Voting closes on 15 December 2025 (ET).
The market will be resolved 16 hours after voting is finalized.
Definition of “strike”
A “strike” is defined as any explosive, bomb, missile, ballistic weapon, or similar munition launched by the USA that hits Venezuelan soil or Venezuela’s territorial waters within 20 miles of its coast during the time window above.
1,000@JussiVilleHeiskanen Exactly, because each user can vote only once, and you can’t change your vote after submitting it.
But if someone wants to vote because they believe the strike happened, that can happen anytime. And the poll is open to include those views.