GOP wins in how many of the six "Rabois" Senate races?

Question

Keith Rabois offers to bet Nate Silver that the GOP wins at least five of six Senate races: Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio (special), Michigan. This market counts how many of those six the Republican candidate actually wins.

[tweet]Each answer resolves independently: "At least N" resolves YES if the GOP wins N or more of the six, NO otherwise. Winners per the AP call / certified result. A race that goes to a runoff or recount resolves on its final outcome; the market stays open to resolution until all six are decided.

Pic for posterity:

[image]@bens also has a market set up for the 5 out of 6 claim itself:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/bens/will-keith-rabois-win-his-not-actua)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, At least one, followed by At least two and At least three are most likely. See the market for live updates (3 traders, as of Nov 2, 2026).

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