Will Keith Rabois win his (not actual) bet against Nate Silver?

Question

Resolves YES if Reps win at least five out of the six following Senate races:

Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan

See thread here:

Keith Rabois (@rabois) on X

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 17% chance (27 traders, as of Nov 2, 2026).