Will the METR long-horizons have a >6 month doubling time for at least a 4 month period before 2026? | Manifold

Will the METR long-horizons have a >6 month doubling time for at least a 4 month period before 2026?

13

100Ṁ312

Dec 31

81%

chance

3

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The doubling time for the METR time horizons has moved off the consistent 7 months from 2019-2024 to a new exponential doubling every 4 months at around the end of 2024.

(source: https://theaidigest.org/time-horizons)

Some causes, such as reasoning models, suggest this will revert to baseline. Others, such as AI accelerating research engineering strongly, suggest the trend will continue.

This is confounded by other possible phase transitions in research, but would still be an interesting part of the future to peer into.

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@plex could you specify

whether you mean the time series for 50% time horizon or for 80% time horizon (or either/both)
what calculation you will do to determine whether this resolves YES or NO
whether you would resolve before December 31 under any circumstances?

bought Ṁ80 YES

I assume this resolves yes as of today? O3 to GPT-5 growth rate is ~0.35% a day (for 50%, 80% even slower), a doubling time of 6.5 months. It's been.> 4 months since O3 came out.

Is the title phrased incorrectly or am I just having difficulty parsing it?

@MingCat yup, missed a connecting word, fixed.

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