The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 32 hours. If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A. Update 2026-09-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves using the 50% success threshold. Uses the latest benchmark version that continues the spirit of the original. Update 2026-09-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the METR time horizon is ambiguous to the point where the answer is unclear, the market will resolve to N/A. If it is ambiguous but clearly within a specific range (e.g., 128+), it will resolve to that outcome.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 128+ hours, followed by 64-128 hours and 32-64 hours are most likely. See the market for live updates (10 traders, as of Sep 19, 2026).

What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2028?

Ṁ150Ṁ403

2028

1.5%

8-16 hours

16-32 hours

32-64 hours

64-128 hours

85%

128+ hours

<8 hours

The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 32 hours. If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A.

Update 2026-09-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves using the 50% success threshold.
- Uses the latest benchmark version that continues the spirit of the original.

Update 2026-09-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the METR time horizon is ambiguous to the point where the answer is unclear, the market will resolve to N/A.
- If it is ambiguous but clearly within a specific range (e.g., 128+), it will resolve to that outcome.

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@Benthamite Is this for 50% success or 80% success? TH 1.0, 1.1, or latest at time of resolution?

@singular 50%, using the latest that continues the spirit of the original. (The original was crafted such that it could in theory be extended arbitrarily upwards without affecting the already currently measured stuff.)