What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2028?
10
Ṁ150Ṁ3782028
1.8%
8-16 hours
2%
16-32 hours
4%
32-64 hours
8%
64-128 hours
82%
128+ hours
2%
<8 hours
The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 32 hours. If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Best METR 50% Time Horizon in 2026
What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
GPT 5.3 METR time horizon
Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?
63% chance
Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon
Will METR retire the 50% Time Horizon by EOY 2026
34% chance
Polymarket has some METR time horizon market before August 2026?
57% chance
Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?
33% chance