Will METR retire the 50% Time Horizon by EOY 2026 | Manifold

Will METR retire the 50% Time Horizon by EOY 2026

20

Ṁ100Ṁ586

2027

61%

chance

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This market will resolve Yes if METR removes or no longer updates the 50% Time Horizon from their Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models benchmark.

A public statement from METR that they will no longer officially track their 50% time horizon will count

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bought Ṁ20 YES

The current version is saturated. The next version has some chance of being saturated before it is even released. Either way, trying to measure 50% in version 1.3 is probably a fool's errand at that point.

Related Market. The resolution criteria is a bit different so I will keep this market up

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