This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for any Grok 5 model released within a month of the first Grok 5 announcement.
50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for the technical definition. Claude 3.7 Sonnet, released in February 2025, was the leading model with a 50% horizon of 59 minutes.
Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
See also:
/Bayesian/gpt-52-pro-metr-time-horizon
/Bayesian/gemini-3s-50-time-horizon-per-metr
/Bayesian/grok-420s-metr-50-time-horizon
/Bayesian/claude-sonnet-46s-metr-50-time-hori
/Bayesian/grok-5s-50-time-horizon-per-metr (this market)
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@Bayesian there's not a 50% chance that Grok 5's time-horizon is <3.5h. This market is showing the wrong probabilities.
The members of the AI futures project have given an update and they appear to now be relying on the 80% time horizon length graph from METR for their predictions rather than the 50% time horizon length graph. This implies that a 50% time horizon is not enough. While I think markets for 50% time horizons are useful, I now think that more attention needs to be paid to 80% time horizon lengths. I am planning to create markets for 80% time horizons as soon as possible unless someone beats me to it.
Elon Musk thinks there's a 10% chance it's AGI. Manifold thinks there's a ~50% chance it can't even get gold at the IMO.
