MANIFOLD
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
13
Ṁ125Ṁ877
2027
0.7%
4-8 Hours
0.7%
8-16 Hours
12%
16-32 Hours
32%
32-64 Hours
55%
Other

The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 8 hours. If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ5 YES

If the METR time horizon estimate breaks down, a.k.a. if the frontier AI’s time horizon is ambiguous/unknown, how does this resolve? Other? N/A?

you have the wrong tags on this

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy