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MANIFOLD
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
16
Ṁ125Ṁ1.1k
Jan 1
0.4%
4-8 Hours
0.4%
8-16 Hours
34%
16-32 Hours
43%
32-64 Hours
22%
Other

The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 8 hours. If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A.

  • Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the METR time horizon estimate breaks down or is ambiguous/unknown, the market will resolve to the best point estimate even if the confidence interval is wide.

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If the METR time horizon estimate breaks down, a.k.a. if the frontier AI’s time horizon is ambiguous/unknown, how does this resolve? Other? N/A?

@DavidHiggs It will be the best point estimate, even if the CI is wide. Should I add a "64-128 hour" bucket? Or "64+ hours"?

@Benthamite other is fine for that I think

you have the wrong tags on this

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