Here’s where I think this market stands:

1. o3 doubled o1 in April; <6months

2. Grok 4 doubled Claude 3.7 sonnet in July; <6months

3. GPT-5 doubled Claude 3.7 Sonnet in August; <6months

There has not been a 4 month period where the new SOTA failed to double any SOTA from <6months prior, so this market cannot resolve Yes at this time.

Currently, we are more than 6 months from the release of o3, so doubling that will be insufficient for this market. The next doubling will have to beat 2x Grok 4 110min and be released within 4 months of GPT-5 (August 7 -> December 7). Gemini 3.0 is the best bet here.

@plex could you specify

1. whether you mean the time series for 50% time horizon or for 80% time horizon (or either/both)

2. what calculation you will do to determine whether this resolves YES or NO

3. whether you would resolve before December 31 under any circumstances?

I assume this resolves yes as of today? O3 to GPT-5 growth rate is ~0.35% a day (for 50%, 80% even slower), a doubling time of 6.5 months. It's been.> 4 months since O3 came out.

@Usaar33 o3 performed slightly above the 4 month trend line, so if you use that as a start you will find longer doubling time until GPT-5 compared to the general trend. I haven't done the calculations and I find this market somewhat unclear but I suspect that the o3 to GPT-5 growth rate is not sufficient for a yes solution

Is the title phrased incorrectly or am I just having difficulty parsing it?

@MingCat yup, missed a connecting word, fixed.