Here’s where I think this market stands:

1. o3 doubled o1 in April; <6months

2. Grok 4 doubled Claude 3.7 sonnet in July; <6months

3. GPT-5 doubled Claude 3.7 Sonnet in August; <6months

There has not been a 4 month period where the new SOTA failed to double any SOTA from <6months prior, so this market cannot resolve Yes at this time.

Currently, we are more than 6 months from the release of o3, so doubling that will be insufficient for this market. The next doubling will have to beat 2x Grok 4 110min and be released within 4 months of GPT-5 (August 7 -> December 7). Gemini 3.0 is the best bet here.

@Mactuary

There has not been a 4 month period where the new SOTA failed to double any SOTA from <6months prior

How does the period since o3 not count? Nothing has doubled that sota to this day (7 months later)

@Usaar33 it doesn’t have to double the sota at release, it has to double sota from 6 months prior. GPT-5 did this, doubling Claude sonnet 3.7, resetting the 4 month counter. Something has always doubled the <6 month sota every 4 months or less. (This could happen as long as 10 months after the sota release if things line up)

Gemini 3 (or something else released before 12/7) will have to double sota from the previous 6 months (grok 4 110 minutes -> 220 minutes)

@Mactuary I don't see why you look back 6 months. The question is about a 4 months look back.

@Usaar33 just to be clear, I’m not the market creator, but they haven’t clarified the questions below.

Title says 6 month doubling time. GPT-5 showed a <6month doubling, so resets the 4 month counter. Market creator could’ve specified some calculation for an exponential fit or looking at the last two points or something, but outside that clarification, I think it has to be when the doublings happen.

@Mactuary The window to look back is 4 months, not 6 months. 6 month doubling time is simply a rate of progress -- it's akin to saying 12% monthly growth. GPT-5 was released 4 months after prior SOTA O3 (ok 3 months, 3 weeks) and showed far less than 12% monthly growth. No model within 4 months (or 7 for that matter) has doubled O3's score.

@plex could you specify

1. whether you mean the time series for 50% time horizon or for 80% time horizon (or either/both)

2. what calculation you will do to determine whether this resolves YES or NO

3. whether you would resolve before December 31 under any circumstances?

I assume this resolves yes as of today? O3 to GPT-5 growth rate is ~0.35% a day (for 50%, 80% even slower), a doubling time of 6.5 months. It's been.> 4 months since O3 came out.

@Usaar33 o3 performed slightly above the 4 month trend line, so if you use that as a start you will find longer doubling time until GPT-5 compared to the general trend. I haven't done the calculations and I find this market somewhat unclear but I suspect that the o3 to GPT-5 growth rate is not sufficient for a yes solution

Is the title phrased incorrectly or am I just having difficulty parsing it?

@MingCat yup, missed a connecting word, fixed.