Some countries that purchased Leopard 2 tanks from Germany, such as Poland, have expressed their desire to transfer some to Ukraine. However, the contracts they have signed when they bought them from Germany apparently stipulates that, in order to re-export them to another country, they need Berlin's approval and the German government has so far refused to give it. This question will resolve to "YES" if and only if the German government approves such a transfer by another country by March 21, 2023. In particular, it will not resolve to "YES" if Germany announces that it will send Leopard 2 tanks by this date yet doesn't authorize any other country to do so, although that is very unlikely to happen because if Germany ever sends some of its own Leopard 2 tanks it will almost certainly have authorized their re-export by another country first.
Close date updated to 2023-01-25 6:11 pm
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How about tacit approval?
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Philippe Lemoine
I just created a new market on @ManifoldMarkets asking whether Germany will authorize the transfer by another country of Leopard 2 tanks by March 21 of this year. https://manifold.markets/phl43/will-germany-allow-the-transfer-by
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Philippe Lemoine
I just created a new market on @ManifoldMarkets asking whether Germany will authorize the transfer by another country of Leopard 2 tanks by March 21 of this year. https://manifold.markets/phl43/will-germany-allow-the-transfer-by