Will OpenAI refer to o3 as AGI?
Will OpenAI refer to o3 as AGI?
14
100Ṁ1100Dec 29
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Some are saying “it’s over.”
Will OpenAI or Sam Altman claim that AGI has been achieved, in reference specifically to their o3 model?
Some will say “it’s not quite AGI” or “AGI is hard to define.” This market is only to determine whether the company or ceo will overtly make the claim, specifically about o3.
Resolves ‘yes’ if any official representative says that o3 is AGI, or that it in any way represents achieving AGI as a company. Resolves ‘no’ if the question is punted, if Altman specifically denies that it’s AGI, or another future or past model eventually is named as the first AGI.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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