Will OpenAI "merge and assist" before building AGI? (closes 2030)
Basic
6
Ṁ130
2030
39%
chance

The OpenAI Charter writes:

We are concerned about late-stage AGI development becoming a competitive race without time for adequate safety precautions. Therefore, if a value-aligned, safety-conscious project comes close to building AGI before we do, we commit to stop competing with and start assisting this project. We will work out specifics in case-by-case agreements, but a typical triggering condition might be “a better-than-even chance of success in the next two years.”

This question resolves affirmatively if OpenAI merges with another organization based on this clause. It resolves negatively if OpenAI claims to have built AGI and has not merged with another organization based on this principle. If OpenAI has neither merged nor built AGI by 2030, this resolves N/A.

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