Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?
Basic
2
Ṁ90
2050
22%
chance

The market will close as soon as OpenAI officially announces their first AGI. Resolution will be made after carefully analyzing Sam Altman's last five tweets prior to the announcement.

Resolves as YES:

  • Five tweets prior to the official announcement of OpenAI's first AGI, Sam Altman in his official Twitter (also known as X) account tweets anything that could be regarded as a meme or an indirect or direct reference to that AGI. This includes any references that don't make sense prior to the announcement but later gain sense (like, for example, tweeting about supernovas and the first AGI's name being "Supernova").

  • This is about OpenAI's first AGI (or superior level) announcement; it doesn't matter if another company or group develops another AGI before.

  • An announcement made in conjunction with another company or group for AGI counts as long as OpenAI is involved, even if the official announcement is not made by OpenAI itself.

  • A rebrand of OpenAI under another name counts.

Resolves as NO:

  • If the year 2050 ends without meeting the YES criteria.

  • If Sam Altman leaves OpenAI before the AGI announcement.

  • If OpenAI dissolves as a company.

OP Trading: Given the subjective nature of this market’s resolution (as I will have the last word on whether the tweets are references to the AGI or not), I won't bet on this market.

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