Movement in "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?" by EOY 2024. (500M subsidy)
Basic
8
Ṁ347Dec 16
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Scott Alexander's AI movie market has been trading very consistently at 50%.
This market resolves to 2 * | distance of linked market from 50% |
So if linked market is at 72%, this would resolve to 44%.
If linked market is trading at 1%, this resolves to 98%.
To determine the price of the linked market, I'll take the volume weighted average price of the last 5 trades at the end of 2024. Obviously I won't trade in that market near resolution time. (time may be slightly randomized to avoid distorting linked market)
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
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