Will autonomous weapons be used to kill >1000 humans before 2030 in an offensive strike?
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70%
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Resolves as Yes if the autonomous weapons, e.g. drones, kill over 1000 humans as part of an 'offensive strike' - an event lasting a relatively short time and not necessarily part of a military act.
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@MartinRandall I don't think any of the systems that were publicly disclosed are fully autonomous. Also there was no single strike (autonomous or not) killing over 1000 people in the whole war.
The US is formally against autonomous weapons. China is against their use but develops them anyway. But anyway China is unlikely to kill 1,000 people in a military conflict, unless a war with Taiwan breaks out, which is unlikely IMO. I think most countries probably fall into one of these two categories.
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