Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years?
Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years?
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Do you consider any past or current conflict to have used such weapon system? If not, then any number of use in the following would resolve this market Yes (0 to 1, "infinite" percent increase).
Additionally, it is your prerogative to keep this market vague as the creator of it, but people here often like to have at least some idea of what you'll consider autonomous AI weapon systems, to decrease resolution risk, especially for such a subject with a degree of ambiguity on what "autonomous" mean.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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