More options because the other market solidified at 500+
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The resolution is end of the year, but we are predicting the number at the end of the war, right? @MilfordHammerschmidt
Will the market resolve to the official death toll? Seems like the Israel's government's number is highly skeptical, with almost all death in the army comes from officers not soldiers.
the cumulative numbers of israel death in videos that Hamas published seems to be higher than what Israel army claimed.
@HanchiSun Israel has an open society and free press. It can't lie about casualty numbers because the families of those soldiers would notice and raise hell about it.
Deaths are disproportionately officers because the IDF trains its officers to lead from the front (and not, just to throw a completely hypothetical random example, hide behind civilians).
@HanchiSun do teach me more about a country I actually grew up in and you've only read about in tweets written by Nazis on Twitter.
@HanchiSun "I only trust twitter because twitter is the site with actual Nazis" is definitely a take, I'll giv you that.
@HanchiSun thanks for that.
Look, I get that if you grew up in China and have never been to Israel there's no good way to know from the outside what information is and isn't available in Israel and what it would be open about.
To the degree that you're willing to trust me, a random named person on the internet, I can assure you that the Israeli government flat does not have the capacity (or the willingness) to hide Israeli casualties. Leaving aside the more complicated question of battlefield reporting in general, Israeli troops have friends and family with access to social media and they would absolutely raise hell if a friend of theirs died and it went unreported (it's relevant here that Israel publishes named lists of fallen soldiers, not just numbers). That just isn't something you can hide on the battlefield even if you wanted to.
@ShakedKoplewitz also relevant here that Israel is very small. If someone dies a significant chunk of the country will be second or third degree acquaintances of his.
@ShakedKoplewitz Just to back you up here:
Israeli & Jewish social networks are disproportionately dense. In Israel, it is impossible for people of different religions to get legally married (interfaith couples will get married in Cyprus and then return, or one will convert). Also, outside of Israel, many Jews observe religious restrictions which prevent intermarriage and hamper socializing outside of their community.
Between this and mandatory conscription, you will seldom find a Jew or Israeli who doesn’t know someone who knows someone who knows someone who died or whose parent/sibling/child died in combat.
Evidence: I’ve never spoken to Shaked before, but I am confident that after a 5-minute conversation or <10 exchanges, we’d find a mutual acquaintance (excluding EA NYC community members, because that would be too easy). If any commenter is skeptical, I’ll make a market and let’s bet! You can pick any willing Jewish user on Manifold, if you’d prefer.
I guess it might become important whether the nationality of the people killed by Hamas on Oct 7 makes a difference to whether they are included in the "Israeli side" total. My feeling would be that they are included regardless of whether they had an Israeli passport.
@MilfordHammerschmidt Your ruling on this? I could see going either way; the most important thing is to pick one and be clear about it.
Israel Lowers Oct. 7 Death Toll Estimate to 1,200: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/10/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news#israel-lowers-its-official-oct-7-death-toll-to-1200
About 40 Israelis soldiers have been confirmed killed in Gaza. 200+ more Israelis would have to be confirmed dead by the end of 2023 to trigger the 1500 to 2500 resolution.
This crisis has caused enormous amounts of death to occur in Israel, where there have been above one thousand two hundred deaths, and has also seen the worst attack in Israeli history since it was founded seventy five years ago, and has also witnessed approximately nine hundred causalities occur in Gaza. Recovery of 1,500 militant’s corpses along Israeli-Gaza border accentuates grieving. Controversially, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he would turn Hamas sites into dust as he did ISIS. Israeli troops cut off a major exit route out of Gaza in order to control the movement of people. According to reports, Lebanon and Syria bombarded Israel and faced Israeli air strikes increasing tensions in the region. The complexity of the situation was added upon by Hezbollah's claim that it needed to retaliate for the deaths of its members. The impact of the conflict spills over other areas outside the war arena such that international observers are keenly observing how the crisis will be resolved peacefully. Statistical analysis: The high mortality rate indicates a serious human tragedy, which also exacerbates when other actors are involved leading to more possibility of regionalization.
Statistical and economic data reference
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/israel-gaza-war-live-updates-israel-regains-control-of-gaza-border-over-3-000-killed-4469701
@MilfordHammerschmidt The close date is currently the end of 2023. Is the market actually closing and/or resolving at the end of the year, or will this run longer if the war goes longer?
Per the Wall Street Journal, Clashes Intensify Along Israel’s Northern Border as It Prepares Gaza Invasion - WSJ
Israeli authorities said the death toll from the Oct. 7 attack has risen to 1,400, while 126 people were taken hostage and 289 Israeli soldiers have been killed.
In the Israel-Hamas conflict, the toll on human lives has been devastating. With over 1,200 fatalities, Israel is grappling with the deadliest attack in its 75-year history. Meanwhile, Gaza has reported approximately 900 casualties as a result of this ongoing conflict. On Tuesday, Israel's army announced the recovery of around 1,500 militants' bodies near the border areas of Gaza. In response to these losses and in a show of determination, Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has pledged to reduce Hamas-controlled sites in Gaza to rubble.
In a bold and controversial statement, Netanyahu likened the actions of Hamas to the brutality of ISIS, stating, "Hamas terrorists bound, burned, and executed children. They are savages. Hamas is ISIS." Such rhetoric underscores the gravity of the situation and the deep-seated animosity between the two sides.
The conflict's impact extends beyond the immediate battleground, as Israeli forces targeted the main exit point from the Palestinian region on Tuesday, further restricting the movement of civilians in Gaza. Additionally, reports have emerged of shelling from Lebanon and Syria directed at Israel, to which the Israeli military responded with its own airstrikes.
Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has asserted that these strikes were carried out in retaliation for the deaths of its members at the hands of Israeli defense forces. The involvement of groups like Hezbollah further complicates the regional dynamics and threatens to escalate the conflict. As the situation remains highly fluid, international observers and organizations are closely monitoring the evolving crisis, hoping for a peaceful resolution and an end to the loss of lives and destruction in the region.
Statistical and economic data reference
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/israel-gaza-war-live-updates-israel-regains-control-of-gaza-border-over-3-000-killed-4469701
I can't vote on this as it's immoral to bet on people dying.....but don't let me stop you.
@SteveBowles fwiw, as an Israeli, I would like you to bet in this market (which to some extent means betting on me personally dying). I'm currently trying to discuss with friends and figure out the risks and what we should do - and having reliable prediction markets would help us
@SteveBowles I understand the feeling. But society is filled with such predictions only more tacit. Insurance rates are premised on deaths forecasts. Is insurance immoral?
@SteveBowles At least for me, the reason betting on people dying feels immoral at first is that it pattern matches to evil, e.g. when I hear "betting on people dying" I think "betting on enslaved Roman gladiators killing each other for others' entertainment". But then when I think about our situation more, I don't see who is actually being harmed, and I do see ways it can concretely help people (e.g. see Yonatan above). So I don't think it's actually immoral and in fact is rather the opposite since it is helping people (albeit only helping a little bit given that this is still a play-money market in its infancy, so its predictions aren't as valuable as they could be in a more markets-friendly world).
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