More options because the other market solidified at 500+
Update Dec 29: This market, like the other one, is about the entire war. I have moved the resolution date because it has not ended yet.
1,000The date should not have been pushed forward and should resolve at the original end date, since predictions were made based on that assumption.
@AlexanderTurok Predictions were also probably made on different assumptions, given that people were asking questions in the comment section, given that the question is based on an earlier one which specified it's about the entire war, and given that that's not actually something I said.
Market changed because he was decided to change the date to three days from it. There is no sense in wasting time betting under these conditions. I am exiting the market and patience for the lost mana.
Current death toll on Wikipedia is 1414+
About 130 hostages left.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war
The resolution is end of the year, but we are predicting the number at the end of the war, right? @MilfordHammerschmidt
Will the market resolve to the official death toll? Seems like the Israel's government's number is highly skeptical, with almost all death in the army comes from officers not soldiers.
the cumulative numbers of israel death in videos that Hamas published seems to be higher than what Israel army claimed.
@HanchiSun Israel has an open society and free press. It can't lie about casualty numbers because the families of those soldiers would notice and raise hell about it.
Deaths are disproportionately officers because the IDF trains its officers to lead from the front (and not, just to throw a completely hypothetical random example, hide behind civilians).
@HanchiSun do teach me more about a country I actually grew up in and you've only read about in tweets written by Nazis on Twitter.
@HanchiSun "I only trust twitter because twitter is the site with actual Nazis" is definitely a take, I'll giv you that.
@HanchiSun thanks for that.
Look, I get that if you grew up in China and have never been to Israel there's no good way to know from the outside what information is and isn't available in Israel and what it would be open about.
To the degree that you're willing to trust me, a random named person on the internet, I can assure you that the Israeli government flat does not have the capacity (or the willingness) to hide Israeli casualties. Leaving aside the more complicated question of battlefield reporting in general, Israeli troops have friends and family with access to social media and they would absolutely raise hell if a friend of theirs died and it went unreported (it's relevant here that Israel publishes named lists of fallen soldiers, not just numbers). That just isn't something you can hide on the battlefield even if you wanted to.
@ShakedKoplewitz also relevant here that Israel is very small. If someone dies a significant chunk of the country will be second or third degree acquaintances of his.
@ShakedKoplewitz Just to back you up here:
Israeli & Jewish social networks are disproportionately dense. In Israel, it is impossible for people of different religions to get legally married (interfaith couples will get married in Cyprus and then return, or one will convert). Also, outside of Israel, many Jews observe religious restrictions which prevent intermarriage and hamper socializing outside of their community.
Between this and mandatory conscription, you will seldom find a Jew or Israeli who doesn’t know someone who knows someone who knows someone who died or whose parent/sibling/child died in combat.
Evidence: I’ve never spoken to Shaked before, but I am confident that after a 5-minute conversation or <10 exchanges, we’d find a mutual acquaintance (excluding EA NYC community members, because that would be too easy). If any commenter is skeptical, I’ll make a market and let’s bet! You can pick any willing Jewish user on Manifold, if you’d prefer.
I guess it might become important whether the nationality of the people killed by Hamas on Oct 7 makes a difference to whether they are included in the "Israeli side" total. My feeling would be that they are included regardless of whether they had an Israeli passport.
@MilfordHammerschmidt Your ruling on this? I could see going either way; the most important thing is to pick one and be clear about it.
Israel Lowers Oct. 7 Death Toll Estimate to 1,200: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/10/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news#israel-lowers-its-official-oct-7-death-toll-to-1200
About 40 Israelis soldiers have been confirmed killed in Gaza. 200+ more Israelis would have to be confirmed dead by the end of 2023 to trigger the 1500 to 2500 resolution.