Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if any U.S.-based corporation has operational control over Venezuelan assets formerly operated by PDVSA by January 31, 2026. As of January 3, 2026, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been captured and flown out of the country following a U.S. military strike, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating the U.S. action in Venezuela has ended after Maduro's capture. "Operational control" means the corporation directly manages day-to-day operations, makes production decisions, and controls asset deployment—not merely holding financial interests or minority stakes. Currently, PDVSA controls the petroleum industry in Venezuela, and Chevron is the only U.S. company that still operates in Venezuela. On March 4, 2025, OFAC amended Chevron's license to require the company to wind down operations in Venezuela. The market resolves NO if no U.S. corporation achieves operational control by the deadline.

Background

Venezuela officially nationalized its oil industry on January 1, 1976, with the country assuming control of the chief supplier of foreign oil to the US and the largest and most sophisticated petroleum complex in Latin America, run by Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). In 2006-07, Chávez ordered all foreign oil companies operating in the Orinoco Belt to convert their projects into majority state-owned joint ventures with PDVSA holding at least 60%, with companies that refused being effectively pushed out. Chevron is the sole major U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela because it has been granted a specific license by the U.S. Treasury, allowing it to produce and export Venezuelan oil under strict conditions, and is allowed to operate only in oil projects it already shared with PDVSA.

Considerations

Venezuela is sitting on 303 billion barrels worth of crude—about a fifth of the world's global reserves. The question hinges on whether a change in Venezuelan political control translates to operational control of oil assets by U.S. corporations within the 28-day window. Administrative control of the oil fields comes with a $20 billion reconstruction liability, and investors must decide whether to spend the $20 billion required to fully restore the Orinoco Belt. Additionally, international law is clear that sovereign states own the natural resources within their territories under the principle of Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources, meaning sovereign states have the inherent right to control, use and dispose of their resources for their own development.