Will Manifold create high quality AI sweepstakes questions?
Standard
11
Ṁ650
Dec 23
68%
chance

SG:

Yes, we are focused on the election right now, as it's election season. But after the election, AI will be a bigger focus. We plan to commission and subsidize high-quality markets on AI benchmarks, product launches, regulatory changes, etc.

The markets must provide useful information (I consider the above categories to be high quality), be well managed, and have little chance of dispute.

Examples of poorly specified markets: Will Gemini be released in 2023?

Will a lawless LLM chatbot get 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024?

Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?

Resolves to the percentage of markets I deem to be good.

Resolves NO if less than 5 AI related markets are designated sweepstakes markets before close date.

I will not trade in this market.

Similar market: Will Manifold's sweepstakes markets be higher quality than Polymarket?

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bought Ṁ10 NO

Just out of curiosity, do you consider "AGI WHEN?" that used to be pinned in AI tab a high quality market?

reposted

If nobody trades on this, I'll make a more clickbait title

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