Will Putin get killed by 2022?

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Meaning the end of 2022 Close date updated to 2023-01-01 12:00 am Mar 2, 10:44am: 1 Starting to look real good https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t4bm7n/russian_entrepreneur_puts_a_1000000_bounty_on/ Mar 5, 1:28am: I don't care anymore. Take all the money.

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What Matthew said. How many world leaders get assassinated in an offensive war? 1/6 seems way too high.

Despite Russia being currently engaged in a very visible war, I find it really hard to put these odds as anything significantly higher than the chance of any G7 country leader being killed per year. If there's a military threat to your leader, you increase security. Random assassinations are hard to predict and (probably) hard to prevent, but I can only imagine that Putin's security detail is quite a bit more protective than in March 2021.

killed is broader than assassinated but narrower than died

https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-vladimir-putin-be-assassinated is 10%

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