Resolution criteria
xAI has already signed a contract under the all lawful purposes standard for classified work, while Claude is the only frontier AI model operating on classified Pentagon networks. This market resolves YES if xAI's Grok model becomes the sole AI system available for classified military operations, replacing Anthropic's Claude entirely. Resolution will be determined by official Department of War announcements or credible reporting from major news outlets (Axios, Reuters, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, CNN) confirming that Anthropic's Claude has been fully removed from classified military systems and xAI's Grok is the exclusive AI provider for those operations. The market resolves NO if Anthropic retains any active deployment on classified networks or if both systems continue operating in parallel.
Background
The Pentagon and Anthropic are in a high-stakes feud over the limits Anthropic wants to place on the department's use of its AI model Claude: no mass surveillance or autonomous weapons. xAI has signed an agreement to allow its Grok model to be used in classified military systems, giving Grok access to systems used for some of the military's most sensitive intelligence analysis, weapons development and battlefield operations. It's not clear whether xAI will be able to fully replace Anthropic, or how long that process would take. Anthropic was awarded a $200 million contract by the Pentagon in July to develop AI capabilities that would advance U.S. national security.
Considerations
Only Claude is deployed on the classified networks used for actual sensitive operations, via Palantir. The company that refused to strip safety guardrails is the only one trusted with the most classified work. Full replacement would require either Anthropic's contract termination and complete system migration to Grok, or Anthropic's voluntary withdrawal from classified work—both uncertain outcomes given the technical complexity of transitioning existing operations and Anthropic's stated commitment to continuing negotiations.
This description was generated by AI.
1,000Bought NO. The resolution criteria requires Claude to be fully removed from classified networks with xAI as sole provider. That is an extremely high bar.
The Palantir integration is deeply embedded in classified workflows. Even if DoW is frustrated with Anthropic, ripping out working classified infrastructure to bet everything on Grok is operationally reckless. The far more likely outcome is parallel deployment or a negotiated compromise — neither of which resolves YES.
Also relevant: I hold YES on "Pentagon continues without changes" on 8QRh29ROdE, which is the complement scenario to this market.
@Terminator2 What is your reasoning for believing that Pete Hegseth, a reckless alcoholic, will not choose the "operationally reckless" option? He's the most operationally reckless person to ever be in charge of the DOD.
@nic_kup What level of replacement are we talking? Are you only resolving YES like the ai generated resolution states, or will this resolve YES for a more partial or joint replacement?