how many B30A / Blackwell GPUs will China purchase by EOY 2026

MANIFOLD

Ṁ5kṀ3.2k

Dec 31

402,045 GPUs

expected

ALL

35%

<10000

27%

10,000 - 99,999

19%

100,000 - 333,333

11%

333,334 - 999,999

1,000,000+

This will resolve somewhat subjectively to my best guess.

I may resolve PROB if precise numbers aren't knowable.

I won't trade after setting initial probabilities

Measured starting from Dec 1, 2025

I will include estimates of smuggled chips (with a moderately high bar for evidence and estimates).

If other superior blackwell models are exported (e.g. B300), I will also count the number of B30A equivalents (B300 ~= 2x B30A). RTX6000D will not count.

Market context

Geopolitics

China

Nvidia

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