how many H200s will China purchase by EOY 2026
3
5kṀ25712026
627,892 GPUs
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
12%
<10,000
20%
10,000 - 99,999
54%
100,000 - 999,999
14%
1,000,000+
This will resolve somewhat subjectively to my best guess.
I may resolve PROB if precise numbers aren't knowable.
I won't trade after setting initial probabilities
I will include estimates of smuggled chips (with a moderately high bar for evidence and estimates).
Measured starting from Dec 1, 2025
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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