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MANIFOLD
how many H200s will China purchase by EOY 2026
7
Ṁ5kṀ13k
Dec 31
1.5m
expected
1.8%
<10,000
8%
10,000 - 99,999
47%
100,000 - 999,999
43%
1,000,000+

This will resolve somewhat subjectively to my best guess.

I may resolve PROB if precise numbers aren't knowable.

I won't trade after setting initial probabilities

I will include estimates of smuggled chips (with a moderately high bar for evidence and estimates).

Measured starting from Dec 1, 2025

Market context
AI
Geopolitics
China
Nvidia
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Ṁ1,000
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