Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, between August 24, 2026, and December 31, 2026, there is credible reporting or official confirmation that Chinese companies (such as Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba, JD.com, or others) have purchased and taken delivery of additional NVIDIA H200 chips beyond the initial batches of approximately 10,000 units each reported in mid-August 2026.

Credible sources for verification include major financial and technology news outlets such as Reuters, Bloomberg, and the Financial Times.

If no additional purchases or deliveries of H200 chips by Chinese companies are reported by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

In January 2026, the U.S. government established a licensing framework allowing approved Chinese tech companies to purchase limited quantities of NVIDIA's H200 AI processors (up to 75,000 or 100,000 units per company) under case-by-case reviews. Beijing initially restricted local firms from importing these chips to encourage the adoption of domestic alternatives, such as Huawei’s Ascend processors.

However, in mid-August 2026, Beijing eased these restrictions, allowing ByteDance and Tencent to take their first deliveries of approximately 10,000 H200 chips each. This market tracks whether additional H200 chip transactions or deliveries to Chinese buyers will proceed through the remainder of 2026.

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