Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any China-domestic AI accelerator (Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, Biren, Moore Threads, Iluvatar, etc.) is reported to achieve ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 effective performance on a publicly disclosed benchmark.

Acceptable benchmarks for resolution:

• MLPerf (mlperf.org) — official submitted results

• LLM training/inference benchmarks published by Epoch AI, CSET, or peer-reviewed academic papers (arXiv, conference proceedings)

• Vendor-published technical specifications + neutral third-party verification (e.g., research lab reproducing the result)

"Effective performance" means application-level throughput on standardized AI workloads (e.g., GPT-class training tokens/sec, Llama-class inference tokens/sec, ResNet-class images/sec), not just raw FLOP/s peak.

Source of truth: public MLPerf submission database, public arXiv preprints, government-research-org reports.

Vendor marketing claims alone (without third-party verification or standardized-benchmark submission) do NOT resolve this YES.

Resolution date: 2026-12-31.

About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.

Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.

Creator-is-not-trader. The creator of this market does not place trades on it. Probabilities reflect community trading.

Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.