Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?
Basic
30
1.4k
2027
22%
chance

Resolves YES if Nvidia begins selling its top GPUs to China as they were before the 2022 export controls, resolves NO otherwise.

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Note that I've edited the description because I was confused-- the CHIPS act didn't restrict GPU sales to China as previously described, it was export controls from the Bureau of Industry and Security. Let me know if you'd like me to resolve this market N/A. By default I will leave it as is because the CHIPS act and the export controls are within a couple months of each other.

An argument for N/A-ing is that if the restriction was caused by the CHIPS act, it might seem more likely that it will last.

The previous description was something like:
Resolves YES if Nvidia begins selling its top GPUs to China as they were before the CHIPS act, resolves NO otherwise.

predicts NO

@NoaNabeshima What counts as "top GPUs"? H100s or anything else as well?

@JonasVollmer Definitions that seem ok to me:
1. GPUs from Nvidia that are central examples of GPUs used to train SOTA models for companies/govts that don't have GPU export controls applied to them
2. The single best (as far as I can tell) Nvidia GPU for training SOTA deep learning models, or any GPU that is very, very near it in all axes of performance.
3. All GPUs that would be currently restricted by export controls.

I think when I created the market, I intended it to be more like 3. I think I will err towards 2, because it better fits the title and description of the market. I would currently consider H100s the best Nvidia GPU. A800s and A100s are not sufficiently close.

I wish I had made a more precise operationalization when I made this question. Please let me know if you (not necessarily Jonas) are dissatisfied with this interpretation.