Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies?
Plus
16
Ṁ23782029
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The status of these two markets:
https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison
imply that the market has a substantial chunk of its probability mass on Trump going under house arrest. The status of this market https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-be-held-under-house-arre confirms this (though currently it is inconsistent with the "when will trump be imprisoned" market).
This market resolves YES if Donald J. Trump is held under house arrest in the United States. It resolves NO if Trump dies or if the USA ceases to exist.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
When will Trump serve time?
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
10% chance
Will Trump be held under house arrest at Trump Tower at any point before 2025?
2% chance
Will Trump be held in custody pending trial?
13% chance
Will Trump spend any time in prison before he dies?
15% chance
If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
70% chance
Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027?
16% chance
If Trump loses the election, will he be sentenced to house arrest or incarceration by the end of 2028?
41% chance
Will Trump do time?
7% chance
How will Trump serve time?