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MANIFOLD
When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?
42
Ṁ100Ṁ1.8k
2031
34%
2026
48%
2027
75%
2028
76%
2029
82%
2030

At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM. Resolves YES if I lose, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw. On which years will I win?

The market will now be resolved according to the outcome of this linked market which gives more details about which language model will win. E.g. 2026 in this market corresponds to "Any model announced before 2027" in the other market. More details can be found there, but in summary: I’m rated around 1900 FIDE, 2100 USCF. On each move, I’ll provide the LLM with the game state in fen and pgn notation, and I’ll follow along on lichess. I plan to play at a rapid time control, i.e. spending up to an hour per game thinking, though this time limit will not be enforced. I will play white.

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bought Ṁ5 YES

How do you play at a rapid speed control if you have to manually type all the information to the LLM?

@SimoneRomeo See the discussion here.

I will now be resolving this according to the market below; I won’t be playing a separate game at the end of the year for this market.

@mr_mino 2026 in this market corresponds to "Any model announced before 2027" in the other market?

bought Ṁ95 NO

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