Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028?
Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028?
14
150Ṁ10472028
66%
chance
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This market is focused on more technical definition of LLMs than the market below.
The engine must use end-to-end neural networks including LLMs. Explicit monte-carlo tree search or equivalent methods, which is standard in current chess algorithms, can not be used.
This market resolves to YES if the NN score above 2,700 in classic elo rating. (Same as original market)
https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-large-language-models-beat-a?r=eWs
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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