Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050?
17
1kṀ21992050
88%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Strength can be assessed through either human play or through playing with machines. GM level means >2500, or whatever the rating cutoff is for the GM title at resolution
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
52% chance
Will an AI image generation model successfully generate a proper chess board by July 31, 2025
25% chance
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
55% chance
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
40% chance
Will chess be solved by 2040?
24% chance
When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
72% chance
Large language model at least diamond in StarCraft 2 by 2028?
16% chance
Will chess be solved by 2100?
43% chance