This market resolves to YES if I lose a game of chess against an LLM by December 31, 2027 (inclusive).
Only games played with standard chess rules count (not 960, crazyhouse, etc.). If the LLM makes an illegal move, it loses automatically. The LLM must not have any outside assistance. Only games where I am seriously trying to win count, though it would count if I lose due to playing too fast, not paying attention, etc. I won't bet in this market.
I'm a National Master (~2000 FIDE). So far no LLM has come close to beating me. I generally try playing any models that seem to be a big step up in capabilities.
Update 2025-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The LLM may be finetuned.
No outside information/tools that would be disallowed in tournament chess (e.g., engines, opening databases).
No scratch pad/notes for intermediate calculations during the game.
Other tools will be judged case-by-case using a human-equivalence heuristic (allowed only if the human-equivalent is allowed in tournament play).
1,000What qualifies as a LLM for the purpose of this question? e.g. can the LLM be fine-tuned or have access to tools?
Also, does the game end upon the LLM making an illegal move?
@fluttershy The LLM can be finetuned. It can't access any outside information that would be disallowed during a tournament game, such as engines, databases, etc. Otherwise, it would only be fair for me to get to use Stockfish too! And that would defeat the whole point lol. It can't use a scratch pad because humans aren't allowed to write notes to themselves during games. I might have to make a judgment call on other tools as they come up, but the heuristic I'll try to use is if the human-equivalent thing is allowed or not.
Yes, if the LLM makes an illegal move that will be counted as a forfeit.