On May 26th, 2024 Israel struck Rafah in an attack to target two senior Hamas members. It sparked a fire a fire and reportedly killed 45 other people. Times of Israel reports that the strike may have hit a hidden store of weapons and that is the reason why the fire was so large, but that has not yet been confirmed to my knowledge.

I will take inspiration from this market in how I resolve:

https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/did-the-idf-just-now-blow-up-a-hosp
Copy-pasting some relevant notes in how I will resolve:

• If the answer is unclear, I will resolve it to my best guess of the median informed observers' subjective probability based on all reliable sources.

• "Reliable sources" includes both reliable primary and secondary sources. I will be interpreting all of the evidence I can to make a decision, not just taking the word of particular media outlets. I will also be evaluating (with a grain of salt) any released evidence or assessments from the IDF, USA, and Gaza, taking into account that these are biased parties and they may be lying or otherwise not giving us the full story.

• Market resolution goes based on what I expect the median informed, intelligent person reading the same evidence would come away with. If I personally have some galaxy brain interpretation of the evidence that I don't think Average Joe Rationalist or disinterested manifold users would endorse, and that interpretation hasn't appeared anywhere in the media and is just my invention, I'll leave that at the door and stick to the apparent facts of the case.